The Beauty of Random Walk
In Finance, specifically the share market, there exists a theory called the Random Walk Hypothesis.
This theory states that the past trends and upward or downward movements of a share price have no influence on what will happen to share prices in the future.
Prices are unpredictable.
A stock may be plummeting for seventeen days.
It might move from $37 a share to $17 a share.
All of Wall street might be running around like headless chooks, with angry investors on the phone asking what the hell is going on.
Random walk tells us that, regardless of all this dramatic falling that the price has been doing, we cannot predict what will happen to the share price tomorrow. It could just as easily move upwards as it could downwards.
It might recover slightly to $19 a share. It might drop further to $16. We cannot predict it.
Past movements cannot be used to predict future movements.
Flip a freaking coin.
Having a fairly active ticker, I have been considering lately how this theory can be applied to choosing to live a beautiful life.
Say you get hurt.
We all do, it happens. It’s life.
But just because you are hurt today does not mean you cannot be happy tomorrow.
You might be! But you might not. You will not know until you reach tomorrow.
Today cannot tell us what tomorrow will bring.
So if there’s no point trying to guess the future… Is there any point in trying to look back in order to predict it?
No. No there is not.
Look forward.
Just because you were treated without respect today does not mean you will not be given respect tomorrow.
Just because the sun shone today does not mean tomorrow the rain won’t soak right through your white shirt and embarrass the shit out of you in the mall.
Just because you drank one too many Tequila shots in your favourite basement and tried to have a D&M with the bar staff last weekend does not mean you will do it again this weekend. Sorry guys.
Well, okay, you probably will.
But the point is, you needn’t look back.
Don’t bank your future on what your life has been so far.
Sure, take from it what you may. You are standing where you are because of what you have come through; the sum of your parts can be attributed to your past experiences.
But it needn’t overshadow the possibilities of tomorrow. Or tonight.
Look up. See what is before your eyes. Behold the mystery that is your future!
Because for chrissake, if I had a shitty breakfast I’ll be damned if that means I have to have a shitty lunch.
jac writes 